Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
