Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone close by, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
